6.9 billion and counting…
The past week I read an interesting article about population growth, and thought to myself how this could be applied to investment strategies on a long-term marco basis. Here are some of the facts first about our world population and it’s growth in the last 200 years.
In 1804 world population – One billion
In 1927 world population – Two billion (It took 123 years to double)
Remember the Rule of 72 (0.58% growth rate every year from 1805)
In 2011 world population – Seven billion (It took 84 years to double)
Once again remember the Rule of 72 (0.85% growth rate every year from 1927)
Now let’s take the simple notion that human ingenuity, and technology in all fields that are known to man, medicine, biology, food sciences etc. can postpone the human lifespan by another 10-20 years on average, so the average age would be well into the late 90s or 100. Where would our world population be then? And when would it double?
So, lets take a simple population growth rate of 1%, by, 72/1=72, therefore by the year 2083 our world population would be close to 14 billion people. Why, am I explaining this on an investment web-site? Well, lets take a moment for thought, when investing in the long-term you will need to research and discover which areas of business will have the biggest impact on a world population. Could it be food science? Medicine? Computers? Smartphones? The list goes on. Basically, the growth rates in business will always be there, its about businesses finding the right niches, and exploiting the possibilities, and managing their resources properly. Remember, every individual on the planet wants to better their standard of living, and everyone strives to do this daily.
Here are a few other fact finds:
Canada
1950 population 13,737, 000 (population per sq. km – 1)
2000 population 30,667,000 (population per sq. km – 3)
2050 population 43,642,000 (projection) (population per sq. km – 4)
USA
1950 population – 157,813,000 (population per sq. km – 16)
2000 population – 282,496,000 (population per sq. km – 29)
2050 population – 403,101,000 (projection) (population per sq. km – 42)
Africa
1950 population – 229,895,000 (population per sq. km – 8 )
2000 population – 811,101,000 (population per sq. km – 27)
2050 population – 2,191,599,000 (projection) (population per sq. km – 72)
China
1950 population – 550,771,000 (population per sq. km – 57)
2000 population – 1,269,117,000 (population per sq. km – 132)
2050 population – 1,295,604,000 (projection – population control is occurring) (population per sq. km – 135)
Finally,
Over 1 billion adults are illiterate, and 6% of those are women.
27 million people are refugees, and 80% of those are women and children.
1.2 billion people are living in poverity, and 70% of those are women and children.
1 billion people go hungry everyday.
2 billion survive on less than $1 per day.
1 billion don’t have access to clean water.
More then 1000 women die in pregnancy or during childbirth.
Interesting facts when applied to an investment strategy for the long-term.
Sam